Quantitative intelligence analysis : applied analytic models, simulations, and games / Edward Waltz.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

The intelligence analyst and synthesis -- Modeling in intelligence -- Mental models in intelligence analysis -- Translating mental models to explicit sharable models -- Explicit models in structured and quantitative analysis -- Explicit models of analytic thinking -- Explicit models of the targets of analysis -- Analytic wargaming in intelligence -- Model-based support to collection and operations -- Implementing the discipline of explicit quantitative modeling and analytic gaming.

and a recommended curriculum for technical analysts. --Amazon.com

case studies that illustrate a wide range of intelligence problems

dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games

model illustrations and simulation descriptions

the role of models in support of collection and operations

the structure of an analyst's mental model and the theoretical basis for capturing and representing the tacit knowledge of these models explicitly as computational models detailed description of the use of these models in rigorous, structured analysis of difficult targets

Quantitative Intelligence Analysis describes the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst's mental models of a subject, as well as the analyst's reasoning process exposing what the analyst believes about the subject, and how they arrived at those beliefs and converged on analytic judgments. It includes: Specific methods of explicitly representing the analyst's mental models as computational models